Weekly Update: Last Week's Insights


In April, the labor market saw a slight easing, with a marginal uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.9% and a notable drop in NFP to 175K. This led market makers to consider the possibility of two potential interest rate cuts for 2024. Meanwhile, Japan's economy faced challenges with retail sales down by 1.2% and industrial production by -6.7%, indicating a possible extension of accommodative measures by the BoJ.



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In the EU, there was a modest economic uptick of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, coupled with an inflation rate of 2.4%, edging closer to the ECB target.

However, the US Chicago PMI took a dive to 37.9, signaling contraction, driven by declines in New Orders, Production, and Employment.

Japan's S&P Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the eleventh consecutive month, but with a less severe decline since last August. Similarly, the UK's S&P Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.1, indicating contraction, while input price inflation surged to its highest level since February 2023.

In the US, the ADP Employment Change figure decreased to 192K, with notable job additions in the service sector. The S&P Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50, primarily due to declining new orders, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 as new orders reverted to contractionary territory.

JOLTS job openings hit 8.48 million, the lowest level since February 2021, driven by decreases in construction and finance sectors.

Fed Chair Powell expressed caution regarding inflation, hinting at the likelihood of maintaining higher rates for a longer period, while MOFJ Kishida refrained from commenting on forex intervention, amidst a dramatic surge in the Japanese yen against the dollar.

ST Forex Trading

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